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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd