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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.